Jenks, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS64 KTSA 050527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Low storm chances continue Sunday afternoon south of Interstate
   44. Showers and isolated storms linger Sunday night into Monday
   across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - A brief period of cooler weather is expected through early next
   week before temperatures warm again above average.

 - Low thunderstorm chances return toward the end of next week
   along with very hot and humid weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The ongoing storm complex will continue to move southeast across
far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In its wake expect
lower dewpoints overnight and relatively cooler temperatures than
we have seen the past couple of nights. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late Sunday morning into
the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes along and ahead of weak
front. A shortwave trough will sharpen across the Midwest into the
Ozarks helping add support for the activity. Marginal instability
and weak wind shear will keep the severe weather threat low.
Afternoon temperatures in the wake of the front will warm into the
mid 80s to near 90 with lower 90s closer to the Red River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The shortwave trough remains in place across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas through Monday. A low chance of showers and
isolated storms will continue especially across the terrain of
northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Most areas look to
remain dry as winds gradually veer to the east and southeast
during this time. Temperatures will remain close to normal on
monday with little overall change in heights and little
temperature advection. The pattern begins to return to more
summer-like Tuesday and beyond as the western U.S. ridge builds
eastward into the southern Plains. Rising heights and increasing
temperatures aloft should make diurnal storms more isolated by
Tuesday. Surface temperatures warm through the week, peaking on
Thursday. The combination of very hot temperatures and high
humidity will once again bring excessive heat into the
conversation by the middle of the week. Medium range ensembles
agree that the ridge will be suppressed some as we move toward
next weekend with a return of low shower and storm chances across
northern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Lingering rain with embedded thunder will continue to push south
and east through the overnight hours. Gusty winds will also
accompany this activity for a couple more hours across NW AR
sites. Outside of any convective influences, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period as skies slowly scatter out
form north to south during the day Sunday. Scattered thunderstorm
development is possible again Sunday, mainly across SE OK, but
should mostly be south of any TAF sites, so have left out of
mention for now. Winds will generally remain light, varying in
direction from south to north and then mostly calm after sunset
Sunday evening.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  72  91  72 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   91  73  93  73 /  40  20  20   0
MLC   92  72  93  70 /  40  20   0   0
BVO   88  69  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  68 /  30  10  20   0
BYV   85  68  87  66 /  30  10  20   0
MKO   88  71  90  71 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   87  69  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
F10   89  70  91  70 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   92  73  93  72 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04